SCN Global Flow Monitor — Supply Chain Network Dynamics

SCN Global Flow Monitor

Supply Chain Network Dynamics · Global Crude Oil Trade

📄 Read the paper — arXiv:2607.17491

Destabilized Nodes

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Systemic Deficit (MMbbl/wk)

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Throughput Q(T)/Q(0)

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Clearing Price p(T)

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Disruption Scenario

Shock Target

Scenario Preset

Capacity Retained 30%

Demand Elasticity ε 0.10

Supply Elasticity η 0.10

Horizon 26 wks

Shock target Collapse >60%
Degraded 10–60% Insulated
Overland / pipeline

SIMULATION — stress test, not a forecast · UN Comtrade 2025 reported flows (sanctioned / unreported trade not represented) · arXiv:2607.17491

Market Price p(t)

Downstream Flow Losses

Emergency Stockpile Drawdown (% remaining)

Model & calibration: Supply Chain Networks — fluid-stochastic network clearing, Skorokhod inventory dynamics, endogenous pricing with strategic trade rebalancing. Stockpile-depletion events shown for net-importer emergency buffers; exporter buffers are elastic-supply accounts (see paper §5.2). Capacity-retained settings bundle bypass infrastructure (e.g., East–West & Habshan–Fujairah pipelines for Hormuz). No rationing policy is modeled: buffers drain mechanically.
arxiv.org/abs/2607.17491