SIMULATION — stress test, not a forecast · UN Comtrade 2025 reported
flows (sanctioned / unreported trade not represented) · arXiv:2607.17491
Market Price p(t)
Downstream Flow Losses
Emergency Stockpile Drawdown (% remaining)
Model & calibration: Supply Chain Networks — fluid-stochastic
network clearing, Skorokhod inventory dynamics, endogenous pricing with
strategic trade rebalancing. Stockpile-depletion events shown for
net-importer emergency buffers; exporter buffers are elastic-supply
accounts (see paper §5.2). Capacity-retained settings bundle bypass
infrastructure (e.g., East–West & Habshan–Fujairah pipelines for
Hormuz). No rationing policy is modeled: buffers drain mechanically. arxiv.org/abs/2607.17491
Built by Elioth Sanabria — oil is the first system, more are
coming. Follow @elioth4u for the next one.
A Staffing Analytics project. We build interactive decision tools
like this for operations and analysis teams —
contact@staffinganalytics.io.